2026世界杯决赛的易道玄机

 

几个星期前，有朋友热衷2026世界杯赌球，恳请本人通过周易预测，来预判比赛结果。我研究易经八卦三十几年，又忙于写作著述，平常没时间看球赛，更不关心所谓的球星。对于赌球，一向不感兴趣，更不能因八卦预测而激发赌瘾，遂而没有答应朋友的请求。

 

上周五，又有朋友来电，要来我家一起看世界杯决赛。然而，2026美加墨世界杯的英语转播权是 FOX 独家，西班牙语是 Telemundo，家中无有线电视频道，看不了FOX电视直播。只好如实相告，多少让朋友扫兴，心生一丝歉意。

 

经过朋友的几次提醒，倒是激发了笔者看球的兴趣。周日，就在世界杯决赛的当天，还有朋友邀请开车去新泽西大都会体育场感受热闹气氛。尽管就一小时车程之遥，但我已年过半百，又是研究道学之人，何必与小年轻去凑热闹呢？不如居家在网上观看直播来的舒服自在。

 

球赛刚开始，我看到西班牙队穿的红色球衣，阿根廷队穿的白色球衣，遂而决定用金钱卦来预测球赛结果，朋友当场作见证，体验八卦预测的神奇。卜卦之后，我及时将预测结果记录在册并拍成照片，同时翻译成为英文发布在Facebook和Wechat上，让网友们共同见证预测是否准确。当时，忙于观赛，错将比卦写成了师卦，但不影响判断结果。

 

阿根廷被称为足球之国，所以阿根廷队为卦的世爻，西班牙队从欧洲来美洲参赛为客，作应爻。起卦得周易第八比卦，第四爻动，具体排卦如下：

 

 

按卦理分析：世爻卯木为阿根廷队，墓于月建，死于日建，又间爻申金动克卯木，力量衰弱，非常不吉。应爻子水为西班牙队，申金生子水临玄武，应爻旺相，所以判断西班牙队胜出。

 

按天时地利分析：2026为丙午，干支皆火，火炎之年。月建为乙未，是日甲午，甲为栋梁之木，午为烈火，木火通明之象。西班牙对穿红色球衣，红色为离，属火。阿根廷着蓝白球衣，蓝白者坎水之色。以五行论之，今岁2026木火一气，最利火行，因此判断红色球队胜出。

 

此外，赛场设于美东新泽西，为东方，属木；新泽西州，泽为水，西为金，金水二气俱全。火过旺则易焚，幸有泽水以润之，有西方金以制之，火不至于过亢，得中和之妙。此正合《老子》所言“治大国如烹小鲜”，火候贵在不疾不徐。

 

本人研究易经多年，以道人的视角观看球赛，喜欢比较参赛双方的气场强弱，不观球星，只看气运。纵观全场，九十分钟闷平，非不进也，时未至也。及加时至百四分钟，火气已足，一击而破，西班牙队终于以1:0领先。

 

在《周易》的象数体系中，这场比赛呈现出天时、地利、人和相互呼应的格局。加之球衣颜色、方位五行等因素相互映照，最终形成了西班牙小胜的结果。赛后回望，这一推演与比赛结果颇为契合，也为《易经》提供了一个值得讨论的文化案例。

 

前不久的NBA全美职业篮球联赛，纽约尼克斯（New York Knicks）夺冠后，在纽约曼哈顿举行了盛大的游行庆祝活动。如今，人们又沉浸在足球世界杯的盛宴当中。

然，西方人善于球技，无论足球或篮球，皆精于术；东方人善观天文，晓地理，虽不精于技，却通于道。

《庄子》里曰：“物物而不物于物”，球迷为球所役，本人观赛为役球。人类天天踩在球上！地球乃是最大之足球！依笔者看，人类为何酷爱球赛？皆缘于此理矣。

The Hidden Logic Behind the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final

 

The Hidden Logic Behind the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final

By Wu Chenmou

Several weeks before the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final, a friend who was enthusiastic about sports betting asked whether I could use the I Ching (Book of Changes) to predict the outcome of the match. Having studied the I Ching and its trigrams for more than thirty years while remaining occupied with writing and scholarly research, I rarely have time to watch football and pay little attention to famous players. I have never been interested in gambling, nor did I wish to encourage anyone's betting habit through divination. Therefore, I politely declined his request.

The following Friday, another friend called and suggested coming to my house to watch the final together. However, the English-language broadcasting rights for the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America belonged exclusively to FOX, while the Spanish-language broadcasts were carried by Telemundo. Since I do not subscribe to cable television, I was unable to watch the live FOX broadcast and had to explain the situation, feeling somewhat apologetic for disappointing my friend.

Ironically, these repeated invitations gradually awakened my own interest in the final. On Sunday, the day of the championship match, another friend even invited me to drive to MetLife Stadium in New Jersey to experience the atmosphere in person. Although the stadium was only about an hour away, I am already past fifty and have long devoted myself to the study of Taoist philosophy. Rather than joining the youthful crowds, I preferred the comfort and tranquility of watching the match online from home.

As the match began, I noticed that Spain was wearing red jerseys while Argentina wore white with blue accents. At that moment, I decided to cast a traditional coin hexagram (Jinqian Gua) to examine the possible outcome of the match. My friend witnessed the entire process as an opportunity to observe how the divinatory method of the I Ching might be applied.

After casting the hexagram, I immediately recorded the result, photographed the divination chart, translated my prediction into English, and posted it on both Facebook and WeChat so that readers could later compare the prediction with the actual result. In the excitement of watching the match, I mistakenly labeled Hexagram Bi (Union) as Hexagram Shi (The Army) in my handwritten notes. Fortunately, this clerical error did not affect the interpretation itself.

Because Argentina is widely known as one of the world's great football nations, I assigned Argentina to the Subject Line (Shi Yao) of the hexagram, while Spain, traveling from Europe to compete in the Americas, represented the Object Line (Ying Yao). The divination produced Hexagram No. 8, Bi (Holding Together / Union), with the fourth line changing.

According to traditional hexagram analysis, the Subject Line, represented by Mao Wood, symbolized Argentina. It was constrained by both the monthly and daily influences, while the moving Shen Metal line further weakened it. Altogether, the configuration suggested an unfavorable position.

The Object Line, represented by Zi Water, symbolized Spain. It received support from Shen Metal and appeared vigorous and well-positioned. Based on the principles of the hexagram, I therefore concluded that Spain held the stronger prospect of victory.

From the perspective of time and cosmological correspondence, the year 2026 is the Bing-Wu year in the traditional Chinese calendrical system, in which both Heavenly Stem and Earthly Branch belong to the Fire element. The month was Yi-Wei, and the day Jia-Wu, together forming an image of Wood generating Fire.

Spain's red jerseys correspond to the Li Trigram, representing Fire, whereas Argentina's blue-and-white uniforms correspond to Kan, associated with Water. According to the Five Elements, the energetic pattern of 2026 strongly favors the flourishing of Fire. This further reinforced my judgment that the team wearing red possessed the more favorable symbolic conditions.

The location of the match also presented an interesting correspondence. The final was played in New Jersey on the east coast of the United States. In traditional Chinese cosmology, the East corresponds to Wood. "Jersey" evokes the image of marshland or water, while the West traditionally corresponds to Metal. Thus, Wood, Water, and Metal were all present to moderate excessive Fire, producing a balanced rather than destructive configuration.

This balance recalls a famous saying from the Tao Te Ching:

"Governing a great nation is like cooking a small fish."

Success depends not on excess but on proper balance and timing.

Having studied the I Ching for many years, I watch sporting events from a Taoist perspective. Rather than focusing on famous players or tactical formations, I prefer to observe the relative strength of each side's overall momentum and energetic configuration.

Throughout the ninety minutes of regular play, neither side managed to score—not because opportunities did not exist, but because, in the language of the I Ching, "the time had not yet arrived." Only deep into extra time, around the 104th minute, when the symbolic Fire energy had reached its fullest expression, did Spain finally break the deadlock and take a 1–0 lead.

Within the symbolic framework of the Book of Changes, the outcome reflected a convergence of favorable timing, geographical setting, human factors, jersey colors, and the dynamics of the Five Elements. Looking back after the match, I found that the divinatory interpretation corresponded remarkably well with the actual result. Whether one accepts such methods literally or views them as part of China's traditional intellectual heritage, this episode offers an intriguing cultural case for discussion.

Not long ago, after the New York Knicks won the NBA championship, hundreds of thousands of fans gathered in Manhattan to celebrate with a victory parade. Today, people around the world are immersed in the excitement of another global sporting spectacle—the FIFA World Cup.

Western civilization has long excelled in athletic skill, whether in football or basketball. Eastern civilization, by contrast, has traditionally emphasized observing the patterns of Heaven, understanding the principles of Earth, and contemplating the deeper order underlying human affairs. One emphasizes technique; the other seeks the Way.

As Zhuangzi wrote:

"To engage with things without being enslaved by them."

Many fans become captivated by the game itself. I prefer to let the game become a window through which to contemplate broader principles.

Every day, humanity walks upon a sphere.

The Earth itself is the greatest football of all.

Perhaps this is why people across cultures have always been fascinated by games played with a ball.

Will Massive National Debt Become the Last Straw That Breaks America?

 

Author’s Note:

This essay was written on the 250th anniversary of American independence. It is not intended as a prediction of America's decline, but as a reflection on the relationship between democracy, constitutional institutions, and fiscal responsibility. A free society survives not only through political rights, but also through wisdom, restraint, and responsibility toward future generations.

An Institutional Reflection on the 250th Anniversary of the United States

By Wu Chenmou

On July 4, 2026, the United States marked the historic milestone of its 250th anniversary. Two and a half centuries ago, representatives of the thirteen British colonies gathered in Philadelphia and, after intense debate, jointly signed the Declaration of Independence, giving birth to a new nation. The colonists then fought a bloody eight-year war against the British Empire to secure the independence and liberty of this land.

Today, the world's leading superpower celebrates with dazzling fireworks, music, and festivities. The beacon of liberty still shines brightly. Yet, in the author's view, what deserves greater attention than the celebrations is not the fireworks illuminating the night sky, but the long string of silent, cold, and rapidly growing national debt figures on the federal balance sheet—numbers that are relentlessly consuming America's future.

In 2020, I published an article entitled On America's Constitutional Crisis: Challenges, Solutions, and the Path Forward. In that essay, I argued that although the Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Constitution affirm that "all men are created equal," they do not suggest that individuals whose contributions to society differ substantially should necessarily possess exactly the same political influence over the nation's destiny.

The principle of equality should be understood primarily as equality of human dignity, equality before the law, and equality of opportunity. It does not imply equality of wealth, nor should it be interpreted as absolute egalitarianism in determining who exercises political power over the future of the nation.

The tragedy of communism, I argued, lies in its pursuit of absolute equality in distribution, which ultimately produces shared poverty. The weakness of capitalism, by contrast, lies in the doctrine of absolute equality of the ballot, which, if left without institutional safeguards, can ultimately lead to disorder within a democratic system.

When the relationship between an individual's contribution to society and his or her tax obligations becomes seriously disproportionate, constitutional design should reexamine the historic principle of "no taxation without representation" from within the institutional framework itself. This may require restructuring the system of checks and balances between the House of Representatives and the Senate, or establishing higher standards of professional competence and rational deliberation in decisions involving public finance, so that the constitutional principle of fairness between citizens' rights and obligations is better upheld.

美债会成为压垮民主灯塔的最后一根稻草吗？

 

美债危机与民主灯塔

——写于美国建国250周年的制度观察

文 / 吴称谋

 

2026年7月4日，美国迎来建国二百五十周年的历史性时刻。两百五十年前，美东十三块英国殖民地的代表们在费城的激辩声中，共同签署了《独立宣言》，从而诞生了一个崭新的国家。此后，殖民地人民与大英帝国进行了长达八年的浴血战争，才确保了这片土地的独立与自由。今天，这个世界第一强国，烟花璀璨、歌舞升平，灯塔依然长明。然而，在笔者看来，比盛典更值得关注的，并非夜空里升起的焰火，而是财政报表上那一长串无声、冰冷、且正在疯狂吞噬未来的巨额国债数字。

2020年，笔者曾发表《论美国的宪政危机、对策与出路》一文。彼时笔者便尖锐指出：虽然《独立宣言》和《美国宪法》规定“人人生而平等”，却并没有规定当人对社会的贡献不对等时，亦应该享有绝对相等的政治权利。人人平等，核心理念应当理解为人格尊严、法律地位与发展机会的平等。它既不是财富的均等，更不应该是享有决策国家命运之权利的绝对平均主义。共产主义的祸端就是分配的绝对平均，最后导致共同的贫穷。资本主义的弊病在于选票的绝对平等，最后必然会导致民主的混乱。

当个体对社会奉献与纳税责任出现严重不对等时，宪政设计必须在制度内部重新审视‘无代表不纳税’的古老原则，通过重构参众两院的制衡机制，或在公共财政决策中设立更高的专业与理性门槛，使之符合公民‘权利与义务公平对等’的基本宪政原则。历史不断提醒人们，联邦及各州政府必须认真思考，如何在政治平等与公共责任之间保持平衡。

世界历史早有前车之鉴。公元212年，古罗马帝国皇帝卡拉卡拉颁布了著名的《安东尼努斯敕令》（Edict of Antoninus），将罗马公民权盲目赐予帝国境内的所有自由民，使最高政治选举权过度泛滥。其结果是，真正具备纳税能力和国家责任感的核心阶层被边缘化，决定国家最高政治的权力被极度稀释和操弄，直接导致罗马帝国政治紊乱、民粹横行、官僚腐败，庞大的帝国自此迅速走向衰败。罗马共和国灭亡之前，并没有先失去军队，而是先失去了财政调控；没有先失去疆土，而是先失去了制度的节制能力。

选举权作为决定国家整体发展方向的公权力，必须保持相对的精英准入门槛，才能确保国家政治决策的长期正确性与稳定性。唯有如此，才能保证那些真正拥有政治智慧、价值判断、社会责任和奉献能力的精英与中产阶层，能够有力地执掌国家的未来。只有上层社会实行精英式的民主，下层民众才能享有充分的自由。

表1：2000年以来美国联邦总债务规模及增长趋势

年份	美国联邦总债务	增长情况
2000	约5.67万亿美元	—
2008	约10.02万亿美元	约翻一番
2016	约19.57万亿美元	再次接近翻番
2020	约26.95万亿美元	疫情期间大幅增长
2026	约39万亿美元	十年几乎翻番

数据来源：美国财政部（U.S. Department of the Treasury）、国会预算办公室（CBO）历史统计及预测数据。

六年转瞬即逝。当年笔者与同仁讨论的尚是政治意义上的“宪政危机”；而到了2026年的今天，美国最大的危机已经跨越了单纯的党争，演变为一场正在从内部熔断宪政基石的全面财政危机。历史学者的职责，从来不是陶醉于眼前的短暂繁华，而是在文明的长河中勘探并标识暗礁。笔者在此深度谈论美国国债，并非唱衰美国，而恰恰是因为热爱这个民主自由的国家。拥抱自由的世界各族裔都不愿看到人类历史上最成功的民主宪政体制，最终竟败给一张不断膨胀、彻底失控的资产负债表。

学运三十七周年感怀

八九学运37周年纪念

三十七年过去了，八九学运的真相早已昭昭天下。处理近期的政治罪责，必须经历四个步骤：审判，清算，道歉，和解；清除远期的政治恶因，由于当事者已经死亡，代表国家的执政者，需要公开承认、道歉、修复、和解。

对于曾经的参与者和见证者而言，既要勿忘六四，又要超越六四。内在的情感与精神，矢志不渝；外在的奋斗与追求，坚持不懈。

历史不会简单重复，却会因深层基因而重现。文革有过审判，只有一小步，而且不彻底，不全面。因此，未来中国，类似文革、六四的悲剧，必定还会重演。

其实，道理很简单 “恶因”未能消除，“恶果”必定显现。只要天时、地利、人坏，三要素同时出现就会发生，这是自然法则决定的。

 《学运三十七周年感怀》

（一）

邓李杨陈做屠夫，人怨天怒罪当诛；

惊叹晶棺出妖鬼，广场街道堆尸骨。

（二）

学潮乍起造英雄，却被错冠领袖名；

集权遗毒伤民运，半世沉浮诉悲鸣。

（三）

自古豪杰出少年，家国命运悲喜连；

三十七载熬白首，青春无悔寄豪言。

（四）

马列西来乱宪章，同胞数代历风霜；

百年积弊今犹在，期待神州沐曙光。

《七律 · 浏阳三勇士》

八九天安门泼墨事件

左起：余志坚、喻东岳、鲁德成

 《七律 · 浏阳三勇士》

（一）

教员画像挂楼台，愚众沉迷颂独裁；

彩色鸡蛋涂恶鬼，浏阳义士壮行来。

一声怒吼广场起，万众欢呼真相开，

楚地三人批旧制，谭公侠义印心怀。

（二）

毛贼头像挂城楼，湖湘勇士使奇谋。

几枚鸡蛋惊天下，数千学生饿晕头。

坦克子弹飞广场，流亡海角咒王侯！

祭祀忠魂天涯处，勿忘神州众楚囚。

注：

1、教员，指毛泽东，他曾经毕业于长沙第一师范学院。毛统治时期，发起几十次政治运动，非正常死亡人数达几千万。他不是救星，是灾星，是恶鬼。

2、谭公，指谭嗣同，浏阳人，其倡导戊戌变法。失败后，从容就义，血洒菜市口。我自横刀向天笑，去留肝胆两昆仑......

3、浏阳三勇士泼墨天安门城楼毛贼画像，被认为是八九学运中最正确的一件事。

附：

余志坚： 作为主谋，被判处无期徒刑。他于2001年获释，2009年携妻儿经泰国偷渡流亡美国，于2017年在美国逝世。

喻东岳： 被判处20年有期徒刑。因在狱中遭受严重的政治迫害和毒打，他患上了严重的精神分裂症，获释后随家人于2009年一同流亡至美国。

鲁德成： 被判处16年有期徒刑。他于1998年刑满释放，后在2004年底成功逃离中国，经泰国辗转于2006年获得加拿大的政治庇护。

历史评价，他们的壮举被认为是八九民运中最具象征意义和最激进的反抗事件之一。三人以直接的行动击碎了个人崇拜的图腾，其思想反抗的彻底性超越了当时主流的抗议诉求。

点评仲维光 ：七律《文革六十週年嗟憤》

七律-文革六十週年嗟憤

丙午妖災六十年，

心折痛悔一生纏；

追思偃鼠期於腹，

直擊醯鷄滿自憐；

甕里今朝陳事熱，

河邊昨日舊時鮮；

脫空往世緣才具，

省悟新知老在先。

 

註：

1.丙午：此處指一九六六年，文化大革命爆發那年。

2.心折痛悔：三年後，一九六九年夏覺悟，從此學得越多，走得越遠，越為陷入文化革命——反對其它一切文化，以及幼學歧途的痛悔。

3.偃鼠：取偃鼠飲河。莊子．逍遙遊：偃鼠飲河，不過滿腹。鼴鼠只喝一點河水就夠了，喻所求不多。此處指六十年後，紅衛兵一代竟然依然所求不多，多淺嘗輒止、滿於大洋國聲名，洋洋自得者。

4.醯雞：取甕裡醯雞。醯雞，酒甕中生的酒蟲。語本莊子·田子方：孔子見老聃。……孔子出以告顏回曰，丘之於道也，其猶醯雞與。後來以甕裡醯雞喻見聞狹隘、眼光淺薄的人。黃庭堅·演雅：老蚌胎中珠是賊，醯雞甕裡天幾大。此處指紅衛兵一代談文革。

5.頸聯亦指如今文革六十週年，舊國、新地，沒有走出意識形態化的語言及語言方式的舊日紅衛兵一代，陳詞濫調居然再度重起。時鮮，應時的鮮味。

6.尾聯：

脫空往事句指告別舊文化、舊話語，並非易事，需要能力及曠日持久的苦力。

省悟新知句亦非一日一年之事。至老則更知得新、得心不易。老在先，多意，在前邊，亦做未覺老之先到。

2026.5.19

点评：

此诗有大洋国语言之风，且毛病很多，给人以“先有格律框架，后强行填词造句”的明显痕迹。作者概念多于形象，议论多于诗意，书呆气重于历史感。  

第一句，文革固然始于1966年（丙午年），但作为持续十年的政治运动，其最惨烈、最血腥的群众武斗高潮主要发生于1967年至1968年间。若以“丙午妖灾”概括整个文革，容易将一场持续十年的全国性灾难压缩为一年之祸，既模糊了历史过程，也削弱了历史悲剧的复杂性。诗歌允许象征和借代，但象征必须建立在读者能够接受的历史逻辑之上，否则便会产生认知错位。

第二句，“痛悔”，笔者似乎曾经是个红卫兵，因过往行为背负罪责感，而终生痛苦而忏悔。作者曾作为红卫兵参与过某些运动行为，则“痛悔”成立；若只是历史见证者或受害者，则“痛悔”二字便显得来历不明。

中间四句，典故与主题脱节，内容与历史游离，有卖弄风雅之嫌。“偃鼠”、“醯鸡”等典故本出《庄子》，原意在于讽喻见识浅陋、所求有限，与文革历史并无直接关联。且两联对仗亦欠工稳，句法结构不够严整。

第七句，语义漂浮混沌，句式突兀孤悬。

尾句，“省悟”什么？“新知”为何？莫名其妙。

作者的注，更有“卖弄读过《庄子》之意味”，且担心读者不懂其用典，且出自何处，故作解释，纯属画蛇添足。